Several of you have asked me what is happening in Venezuela and what the US is going to do about it. Admittedly, this region is *not* my strong suit, but I can at least give everyone a solid baseline in this rapidly deteriorating situation. The argument in Venezuela essentially boils down to this: there are two people who believe they are the legitimate President of the country. Two?! I mean, I’d settle for one legitimate President in the United States, but I digress.
The players involved in this drama are Nicolas Maduro, the incumbent president who was “reelected” in May, and the leader of the Maduro opposition, Juan Guaido.
Guaido is the leader of the National Assembly (essentially Venezuela’s Congress) and claims Maduro cheated to win reelection, making him (Guaido) the rightful President under their constitution. The United States agrees with Guaido and officially recognized him as the rightful President of Venezuela. Maduro, like anyone who has ever rigged an election ever, says that’s false and he isn’t giving up power. This led to a big diplomatic row between the US and Venezuela in the middle of last week, when Maduro severed relations with the United States and told all US diplomats they had 72 hours to leave the country. The Trump administration rejected this claim as illegitimate, as they had already endorsed Guaido as the rightful president. Bolton’s mustache quivered in delight at the possibility of getting to use the military to do something, and he issued the following statement on Twitter:
“Cuba’s support and control over Maduro’s security and paramilitary forces are well known. Any violence and intimidation against U.S. diplomatic personnel, Venezuela’s democratic leader, Juan Guiado, or the National Assembly itself would represent a grave assault on the rule of law and will be met with a significant response.”
The Walk Back
Saturday was an eventful day in the drama. Jose Luis Silva, Venezuela’s defense attaché in DC split with Maduro, saying, “Today I speak to the people of Venezuela, and especially to my brothers in the armed forces of the nation, to recognize President Juan Guaido as the only legitimate president.” Saturday evening, Maduro said he would suspend the expulsion for 30 days, to give the United States and Venezuela time to work things out.
Venezuela has been a tinderbox for several weeks now. Over 350 people have been detained in massive protests, there are accusations of security forces shooting people during demonstrations, with a current death toll of at least 40 people. Today, Washington escalated the tension further by announcing a sweeping sanctions package aimed at weakening Maduro’s hold on the country. Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) is a state-owned oil and gas company that is a massive part of Venezuela’s economy, and Maduro’s claim to power.
As Maduro’s public support has waned, he has grown into a widely unpopular authoritarian leader. He reportedly uses money from PdVSA to pay cronies and maintain loyalty, including giving top military members stake in the company.
Why Military Loyalty Matters
It’s hard for some Americans to grasp, because the peaceful transfer of power has been our standard for a long, long time. In Venezuela, as in many countries around the globe, the military is the kingmaker. If Maduro is able to continue to provide funds to his thugs, and keep the pockets of the top military brass lined with profit, his position of power is relatively secure. These sanctions are a direct body-blow to his grasp on power, and the defection of his military attaché in Washington will likely have some effect on the troops as a whole. Combined, will they lose Maduro enough support to convince him to relinquish power, or at least hold free and fair elections? We’ll see.
The sanctions will be biting, but they will also play directly into a line that Maduro has claimed for some time: that the United States is orchestrating a coup against him, and by extension, is to blame for the economic troubles of Venezuela. We are by far Venezuela’s biggest oil customer, accounting for a whopping 39% of their deliveries last year, according to CNN and ClipperData.
Venezuela is in a bad place right now. While Maduro and Guaido battle it out over who is the rightful president, the economy has tanked, famine and disease are running rampant, people are dying, or fleeing the country altogether, and, if Bolton’s notepad is any indication, they might have around 5,000 US troops next door in Colombia soon.
I suspect the potential deployment to Colombia is designed as a show of force to make Maduro behave, but it still makes me nervous; as I’ve said for months, *we* have a President who needs a distraction. Couple that with Maduro, who badly needs a scapegoat, and this situation could deteriorate quickly.
Thanks for the detailed explanation of what’s going on in Venezuela. I just hope Best Brain doesn’t use this to take focus off the Stone arrest and the apparent zoom lens that seems to be focused on Donny J. and Jared. I lived through Watergate glued to my tv despite having three kids running around. That’s starting to look like, as Donny would say, a nothingburger!
All these “nothing burgers” are from a Mos cow.
The irony of the US backing the guy who says the other guy stole the election would be hilarious, if it wasn’t such a potential disaster in the making. I fear 45 would definitely throw us into a war in South America for deflection, especially since his base probably can’t make the distinction between that and Central America. They would be cheering “build that wall” and he would eat it up. 🙄
In most cases, I feel like if you want to know why we invade other countries, just google what their natural resources are, and there’s your answer. There has to be oil money to be made by us sticking our nose in this situation, or maybe it really is just another welcome distraction for 45, who, as you said, desperately needs the shiny object right now.
First I want to thank you for taking the time to help us understand what is happening around us! It gets complicated! For me anyway! Second I’d like to ask if you think Trump would start a war on purpose to inhibit impeachment? This has always scared me!